The U.S. housing market has slowed to a near standstill, and the data now looks more like the early-pandemic freeze than a normal seasonal dip.
According to Redfin, U.S. pending home sales fell 4% from August to September and reached their lowest level since spring 2014—except for April 2020, when much of the economy shut down. Seasonally adjusted pending sales stood at about 316,652 in September. Charlie Bilello highlighted the same chart, noting that the market is “essentially frozen.”
At the same time, buyers are walking away from deals at a near-record pace. More than 14% of U.S. home purchases under contract in September were canceled—the highest September cancellation rate on record and the highest overall outside the first months of the pandemic. Redfin puts the figure at 14.5%. With more inventory and less competition, buyers have greater freedom to exit when inspections, financing, or simply a change of mind make a deal less attractive.
The imbalance between supply and demand has also reached an extreme. Barchart reported that home sellers now outnumber home buyers by the largest margin ever recorded. Redfin data put the surplus at 57.9% in August (roughly 1.535 million sellers versus 972,300 buyers)—the strongest buyer’s market the firm has tracked.
Mortgage rates were a major driver. Rates climbed above 7% by the end of September, pricing out many would-be buyers just as inventory reached its highest level since March 2020. Pending sales fell in all 50 of the largest U.S. metros for the first time in three years.
Oahu Is Feeling the Same Pressure
Local numbers show the same cooling trend, especially in recent weeks.
Year-to-date closed sales (through early October)
- Single-family: 1,976 (−5.3% vs. 2025)
- Condos: 1,189 (−22.2%)
- Combined: 3,165 (−12.4%)
Pending sales
- Year-to-date: 3,353 (−14.2%)
- Last 30 days: 310 (−21.3%)
- Last 7 days: only 48 (−42.9%)
Days on market
- Single-family: 29 (up 38% from 21)
- Condos: 42 (up 31% from 32)
Prices have held up so far. Median single-family price is unchanged at $1,099,500; median condo price is up 1% to $500,000. Average prices are modestly higher. But closed sales still largely reflect deals that went into escrow 30–45 days ago, so the sharper drop in recent pending activity has not fully shown up in the closed numbers yet.
What This Means for Oahu Buyers and Sellers
Nationally and locally, the market has shifted. Sellers still outnumber active buyers by a wide margin, homes are taking longer to sell, and recent contract activity has slowed sharply. Buyers who remain in the market have more time, more choices, and more negotiating leverage than they did a year or two ago—particularly on condos.
Sellers who are priced to current conditions and prepared for longer marketing times can still close. The window of automatic multiple offers has narrowed considerably.
The next several months will show whether the recent drop in pending sales translates into meaningfully lower closed volume and, eventually, softer prices. For now, the data points to a market that is frozen more than falling.