Even larger than during the COVID lockdown.
Much larger than during the 2008 housing crash.
It is amazing the price increase since COVID vs. a more normal price increase in the period before COVID.
Even if prices drop 20%, the price appreciation is still way over normal.
Investors seem to think so based on the 1-year stock declines for the biggest Real Estate public companies.
Many feel Oahu is so desirable that the median price of homes will not decrease.
While I agree it is a great place to live, we have periods of falling prices.
As shown in this chart, we have had some drops, one over a 10-year period.
The question is whether the current mortgage rate increases will cause another drop in the Oahu median price.
Sales are definitely cooling. 34.4% less than last September, and the average days on market has doubled for Single Family.
Surprisingly, the median price is still up, but if the sales continue this slow down at some point, I expect the median price to drop too.
For comparison, in the 2008 crash, prices declined 27%.
According to Moody’s, Oahu is up to 25% overvalued as mortgage rates go above 7%.
Every day sellers ask me if now is the time to sell or should they wait. I say sell now because the market could be a lot lower going forward.